海洋熱波の季節的予測

Michael G Jacox^1,2,3, Michael A Alexander⁴, Dillon Amaya⁴

¹NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, CA, USA. michael.jacox@noaa.gov.

Nature

|April 21, 2022

まとめ

海の熱波は 1 年前まで予測できますこれらの予測は,海洋資源管理者がこれらの極端な海洋現象の生態学的および社会経済的影響を準備し,軽減するのに役立ちます.

科学分野:

海洋学
気候科学
海洋生態学

背景:

海洋熱波 (MHW) は,海洋の極端な温度現象で,生態学と社会経済に重大な影響を及ぼします.
海洋資源の効率的な管理は MHW の破壊的な能力によって困難です
MHWを予測することは,積極的な意思決定と海洋生態系の回復力を高めるために不可欠です.

研究の目的:

MHWの予測可能性に関する包括的なグローバルな評価を実施する.
気候予測のマルチモデルアンサンブルを使用してMHW予測を開発し評価する.
海洋資源管理者に対し,MHWの予警に関する実用的な洞察を提供すること.

主な方法:

グローバル気候予測の大規模なマルチモデルアンサンブルを利用した.
世界海域をカバーする30年間の MHWの予報を実施しました.
MHWの発生,強度,および期間について,最大12ヶ月までのリードタイムで予測スキルを評価しました.

主要な成果:

MHWの発症,強度,持続時間は世界的に予測できます
熟練したMHW予測は1〜12ヶ月前に達成できます.
ENSOのような地域,季節,気候によって予測可能性は異なります.

結論:

極端な天候の予測に似ています.
確率論的予測は,利害関係者にリスクベースの管理戦略を実装する力を与えます.
MHWの予測は,地球規模の海洋生態系の気候への抵抗力を大幅に高めることができます.

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