気候変動は種間のウイルス感染リスクを高めます
Colin J Carlson1,2, Gregory F Albery3,4, Cory Merow5
1Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. colin.carlson@georgetown.edu.
Nature
|April 28, 2022
まとめ
気候変動と土地利用により 野生生物種間のウイルスの共有が増加し 推定4000件の種間感染が発生します 蝙蝠は新しいウイルス共有の鍵であり 将来のヒトの病気の発生を 促進する可能性があります
科学分野:
- エコロジー
- ウイルス学
- 気候科学
背景:
- 1万種類以上のウイルスが人間に感染し,そのほとんどは現在野生の哺乳類に限られています.
- 気候や土地利用を含む環境の変化は,野生生物間のウイルス感染の機会を増加させている.
- 動物から人間に伝染する動物性感染症は 世界的な環境変化と 機械的に結びついています
研究 の 目的:
- 哺乳類の間で ウイルスを共有する 潜在的なホットスポットをシミュレートする
- 気候変動と土地利用のシナリオが哺乳類とウイルスの相互作用に与える影響を予測する.
- 将来の動物性感染症の拡散に最も関与する可能性のある地域や種を特定する.
主な方法:
- 哺乳類ウイルスネットワークの 系統地理モデルを使用した.
- 3,139種の哺乳類の地理的範囲の移転に関する予測を組み込んだ.
- 2070年の適用された気候変動と土地利用のシナリオ
主要な成果:
- アジアとアフリカの高地,生物多様性ホットスポット,人口密度が高い地域での新しい組み合わせで種を集める予測.
- これらの新種の組み合わせにより 推定4000件の種間ウイルス感染が発生しました
- 新しいウイルスの共有に大きく貢献するコウモリを特定し,将来のヒトの出現を促進する経路を示した.
- 温暖化を2°Cに制限することは 将来のウイルス共有を 大幅に減少させないことを発見しました
結論:
- ウイルスの共有を促す生態学的移行は 既に起きています
- ウイルスの監視と生物多様性の調査を統合し 種の範囲の移転を追跡する必要がある.
- 熱帯地域では動物性感染症が多く,温暖化が急速に進んでいるため,特に注意が必要です.
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