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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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東南極の氷床の過去と将来の気候変動への反応
Chris R Stokes1, Nerilie J Abram2,3, Michael J Bentley4
1Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK. c.r.stokes@durham.ac.uk.
Nature
|August 10, 2022
まとめ
地球の氷のほとんどを占める東南極の氷床は 地域的な質量損失を示し 安定感に挑戦しています 将来の予測は,地球温暖化対策に大きく依存しています.
科学分野:
- 氷河学
- 気候科学
- 地球システム科学
背景:
- 東南極の氷床 (EAIS) は,地球の氷河のほとんどが含まれており,海面に相当する約52メートルです.
- 歴史的に他の氷床よりも地球温暖化に弱いと考えられていましたが,最近のEAIS地域での質量損失は,その気候感受性の再評価を必要とします.
研究 の 目的:
- 過去の暖かい時期に対するEAISの対応を見直す.
- EAISの変化に関する現在の観測データを統合する.
- 異なる気候シナリオの下でEAISの行動の将来の予測を評価する.
主な方法:
- 古気候データに関する文献レビュー
- 当時の衛星と現地観測記録の分析
- 21世紀以降の気候モデル予測の評価
主要な成果:
- 過去に質量減少を経験した海産EAISの水域は,現在も質量減少しています.
- 21世紀のほとんどの予測では,EAIS全体で氷の蓄積が増加し,概してバランスの取れた状態を示唆しています.
- 2100年後の高排出シナリオでは 氷の排出が増加し 海面が数メートル上昇する可能性があります
結論:
- EAISの安定性は長期的な温暖化傾向に敏感です.
- パリ協定に従って,地球温暖化を2°C以下に制限することは,EAISの大量損失とそれに関連する海面上昇を回避するために不可欠です.
- 温暖化がパリ協定の目標を超えると 数世紀以内に海面が大きく上昇する可能性があります
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