CO2 の社会的コストがより高いことを示す包括的な証拠
Kevin Rennert1, Frank Errickson2, Brian C Prest1
1Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA.
Nature
|September 1, 2022
まとめ
二酸化炭素 (SC-CO2) の社会的コストは著しく過小評価されています. 最新の研究とモデリングによると SC-CO2は"トンあたり185ドルで 現在の米国政府の推定値の3.6倍で 気候政策の利益に影響しています
科学分野:
- 気候科学と経済学
- 環境政策の分析
- リスク評価
背景:
- 二酸化炭素 (SC-CO2) の社会的なコストは気候政策にとって極めて重要ですが,2017年のNASEM報告書では,推定値が時代遅れであることが判明しました.
- 10年以上使用されている既存のSC-CO2値は,最新の科学・経済モデルに欠けています.
- 過去の見積もりは 気候科学,経済学,リスク評価の最新研究を 完全に反映していなかった.
研究 の 目的:
- 最新の科学・経済研究を用いて,二酸化炭素 (SC-CO2) の社会的コストの推定を更新する.
- 気候変動の影響とリスクに関する現在の理解を反映した,より正確で透明なSC-CO2評価を開発する.
- 気候緩和政策の利益コスト分析のための改善された見積もりを提供すること.
主な方法:
- オープンソースの温室効果ガスインパクト値推定 (GIVE) モデルを開発した.
- 改善された確率的社会経済予測,先進的な気候モデル,更新されたダメージ関数.
- 理論的に一貫したリスク評価を適用し,2%の割引率で最新の割引方法を用いた.
主要な成果:
- SC-CO2の好ましい平均値は,CO2の1トンあたり185ドル (44~413ドルの範囲で,5%~95%のパーセンチル) である.
- これは米政府の現在の1トン当たり51ドルという 推定値の3.6倍です
- 更新された方法とデータは,NASEMの勧告に沿って,SC-CO2の推定値を大幅に高めています.
結論:
- 温室効果ガスの削減の見積もりを大幅に高めています.
- この調査結果は,より厳しい気候政策が,これまで考えられていたよりも経済的に有益であることを示唆しています.
- GIVEモデルは,政策決定におけるSC-CO2の推定のための堅牢で透明で最新の枠組みを提供します.
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