地球温暖化が1.5°Cを超えると,複数の気候変動の転換点を引き起こす可能性があります

David I Armstrong McKay^1,2,3,4, Arie Staal^1,2,5, Jesse F Abrams³

¹Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 8, 2022

まとめ

地球温暖化が進むにつれて気候の臨界点や地球システムの臨界点が近づいてきていますこれらの自己永続的な変化による深刻な影響を回避するには,緊急に気候変動の緩和が必要です.

科学分野:

気候科学
地球システム科学
古代気候学

背景:

気候の臨界点は微小な干渉が自己永続的な大規模な地球システムへの影響を引き起こす重要な値を表しています
工業化以前の水準より約1.1°Cの現在の地球温暖化は,いくつかの臨界点における低い不確実性の限界に近づいている.

研究の目的:

グローバル・リージョナル・気候の転移要素とその関連温度値の改訂された合成を提供すること.
パリ協定の範囲と現在の政策の軌道を含め,さまざまな地球温暖化シナリオの下での臨界点の引き起こすリスクを評価する.

主な方法:

古代気候の記録を合成した結果です
観測的な気候研究から得たデータを統合する.
気候モデルに基づく研究を活用する

主要な成果:

グローバル"コア"および地域"インパクト"のティッピング要素の改訂されたショートリストが特定されました.
パリ協定で定められた1.5°Cから2°Cの温暖化範囲内には,いくつかの臨界点が発生する可能性があります.
現在の政策予測と一致する 2°Cから3°Cの温暖化で多くの臨界点が活性化する可能性が高い.

結論:

気候変動の緊急緩和のための証拠基盤が強化されます.
リスク評価の改善,早期警告システム,転換点への適応戦略は極めて重要です.

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