2022年の世界的な流行における重尾性接触ネットワークと猿疫学
Akira Endo1,2,3, Hiroaki Murayama4, Sam Abbott1,2
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|September 22, 2022
まとめ
2022年のの流行は,少数の人が多くのパートナーを持つことにより,男性と性交する男性 (MSM) の間で急速に広がりました. このネットワーク構造は,封じ込めの取り組みに挑戦し,標的型予防戦略の必要性を強調しています.
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 数学モデリング
- 公衆衛生
背景:
- 2022年のモンキーポックスの流行は,流行地域ではない地域で,特に男性と性交する男性 (MSM) コミュニティ内の流行が顕著であった.
- 以前のの流行は,2022年に観察されたような成長パターンや人口占有率を示さなかった.
研究 の 目的:
- モンキーポックスの持続的な増加の背後にある疫学的要因を調査する.
- 性的な接触パターンが 観察された流行のダイナミクスを説明できるかどうかを判断する.
主な方法:
- 経験的な性交データで調整された 伝播モデルを利用した
- 病気の広がりに対する重尾性交の影響を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 少数の個人が不釣り合いなほど多くのパートナーを持つという 重尾性交の分布は,MSMの間で持続的なモンキーポックスの増加を効果的に説明します.
- マンキーポックスの基本的繁殖数 (R0) はMSMの性ネットワーク内で1より大きく,伝播の可能性が高く,封じ込めの課題があることを示しています.
結論:
- MSMの間のユニークな性的ネットワーク構造は2022年のサルの流行の重要な要因です.
- 効果的な封じ込めには 標的を絞った予防,支援,早期発見戦略が必要です 特に性パートナー数が多いMSMの場合です
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