海流は,弱い熱帯サイクロンの世界的な強化を示しています
Guihua Wang1, Lingwei Wu2, Wei Mei3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. wanggh@fudan.edu.cn.
Nature
|November 17, 2022
まとめ
トロピカルサイクロン (TC) は世界的に強まり,弱いTCは著しく上昇傾向を示しています. この研究は正確な海流データを用いて TCの強化を確認し 気候モデルにとって重要な基準となる.
科学分野:
- * 大気科学
- * 海洋学
- * 気候科学
背景:
- * 海洋温度の上昇による熱帯サイクロン (TC) の強まりを予測する数値モデル.
- * 観測されたTC強度の傾向は,データ制限のため,北大西洋を除いて,世界的に議論されている.
- * 衛星による強度推定はしばしば不正確で,気象条件や海面現象の影響を受けます.
研究 の 目的:
- * 熱帯サイクロンの強度に関する観測傾向を,極めて正確な海流データを用いて調査する.
- * 1991年から2020年までの間に,弱気温の熱帯サイクロンが世界的に強まったかどうかを判断する.
- * 気候モデルと予測を評価するための信頼できる歴史的ベースラインを提供すること.
主な方法:
- * 水中に潜ったドリフターによって収集された広範で正確な海流データを使用しました.
- 15mの深さで特殊な"神聖な靴下"を使用し,空気と海のインターフェースのバイアスを最小限に抑えました.
- * 全球的なTC強度の傾向を推論するために,近地電流の速度を分析した.
主要な成果:
- * 弱い熱帯サイクロン (カテゴリー1の熱帯嵐) は,1991年から2020年にかけてすべての海域で強まりました.
- 10年あたり約4.0cm/sの世界の海流の上昇傾向が観察されました.
- TCの強度は10年あたり1.8m/sで,全強度分布に影響を及ぼした.
結論:
- * この研究は,弱気帯域のサイクロンが世界的に強くなっていることを確認しています.
- * 観測されたTC強度の傾向を複製する現在の気候モデルの不十分さを強調しています.
- * 将来の気候モデルの検証とTC研究のための重要な歴史的ベースラインを確立しました.
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