エクソンモビルの地球温暖化予測の評価
G Supran1, S Rahmstorf2,3, N Oreskes1,4
1Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
まとめ
化石燃料会社 エクソンモビルは1977年から2003年にかけての 地球温暖化傾向を 正確に予測し 独立したモデルと一致しました しかし彼らの公的な発言は 気候科学のデータと矛盾していました
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境科学
- エネルギー産業の分析
背景:
- 化石燃料産業の内部的な気候変動予測は 評価されていませんでした
- 企業の気候予測を理解することは 気候科学の歴史的コミュニケーションを 評価するのに不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- エクソンとエクソンモビルの科学者が1977年から2003年に行った 地球温暖化予測を定量的に評価する.
- エクソンモビルの気候モデルの正確性とスキルを 独立した学術および政府のモデルと比較する.
主な方法:
- エクソンとエクソンモビルの社内記録と科学文書の分析
- 地球温暖化予測と検出時間表を含む気候予測の定量評価
- 企業の予測を,後の観測データと独立した気候モデルと比較する.
主要な成果:
- エクソンモビルの内部気候予測は 観測結果と一致して 地球温暖化を正確に予測しました
- 会社の予測は 独立した学術や政府による 気候モデルと同じでした
- エクソン・モービルの科学者は 人為的な地球温暖化の検出を正しく予測し 温暖化を2°Cに制限するための炭素予算を推定しました
結論:
- エクソンモビルは 気候変動に関する正確な内部知識と 予測能力を有していた.
- エクソンモビルの内部科学データと 気候変動に関する公的情報との間には大きな不一致があった.
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