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Design and Use of a Full Flow Sampling System FFS for the Quantification of Methane Emissions
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エクソンモビルの地球温暖化予測の評価

G Supran1, S Rahmstorf2,3, N Oreskes1,4

  • 1Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|January 12, 2023
PubMed
まとめ
この要約は機械生成です。

化石燃料会社 エクソンモビルは1977年から2003年にかけての 地球温暖化傾向を 正確に予測し 独立したモデルと一致しました しかし彼らの公的な発言は 気候科学のデータと矛盾していました

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科学分野:

  • 気候科学
  • 環境科学
  • エネルギー産業の分析

背景:

  • 化石燃料産業の内部的な気候変動予測は 評価されていませんでした
  • 企業の気候予測を理解することは 気候科学の歴史的コミュニケーションを 評価するのに不可欠です

研究 の 目的:

  • エクソンとエクソンモビルの科学者が1977年から2003年に行った 地球温暖化予測を定量的に評価する.
  • エクソンモビルの気候モデルの正確性とスキルを 独立した学術および政府のモデルと比較する.

主な方法:

  • エクソンとエクソンモビルの社内記録と科学文書の分析
  • 地球温暖化予測と検出時間表を含む気候予測の定量評価
  • 企業の予測を,後の観測データと独立した気候モデルと比較する.

主要な成果:

  • エクソンモビルの内部気候予測は 観測結果と一致して 地球温暖化を正確に予測しました
  • 会社の予測は 独立した学術や政府による 気候モデルと同じでした
  • エクソン・モービルの科学者は 人為的な地球温暖化の検出を正しく予測し 温暖化を2°Cに制限するための炭素予算を推定しました

結論:

  • エクソンモビルは 気候変動に関する正確な内部知識と 予測能力を有していた.
  • エクソンモビルの内部科学データと 気候変動に関する公的情報との間には大きな不一致があった.