未来 の 極端 な 温度 が 陸上 の 脊椎 動物 を 脅かす
Gopal Murali1,2, Takuya Iwamura3,4, Shai Meiri5,6
1Jacob Blaustein Center for Scientific Cooperation, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel. murali@post.bgu.ac.il.
Nature
|January 18, 2023
まとめ
地球温暖化により 陸上の脊椎動物のうち41%が 極端な暑さにさらされ 2099年には 排出量が増加する見込みです 温室効果ガスの排出量を 切迫的に削減する必要があるのです
科学分野:
- エコロジー
- 気候変動の生物学
- 保護科学
背景:
- 極端な熱現象の頻度,持続時間,強さは 世界的に増加しています.
- 生物システムに対する極端な温度の影響は大きいが,生物種に対する世界的な被曝データは不足している.
- 将来の極端な温度に対する 種の脆弱性や場所の脆弱性を理解することは 保護活動に不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 陸上の脊椎動物が将来 極端な熱に晒される可能性を 全面的に評価する.
- 様々な温室効果ガス排出シナリオで 危険にさらされている陸上の脊椎動物種の割合と分布を定量化する.
- 将来の極端な熱現象に対して最も脆弱な地理的地域とバイオームを特定する.
主な方法:
- 1950年から2099年までの毎日の最大気温データを活用して,将来の熱極度をモデル化しました.
- 共有社会経済経路 (SSP) の異なる排出シナリオにおける哺乳類,鳥類,両生類および爬虫類の被曝レベルを評価した.
- 種の分布の割合と2099年までの極端な熱現象への曝露の期間を定量化した.
主要な成果:
- 高排出量シナリオ (SSP5-8.5) では,陸上脊椎動物の41%が2099年までに少なくとも半分の分布で,過去水準を超えた被曝にさらされる.
- 両生類 (55.5%) と爬虫類 (51.0%) が最も高い被曝率を示し,次に哺乳類 (31.1%) と鳥類 (25.8%) が続く.
- 中緯度の生物圏 (砂漠,灌木地,草原) は,熱帯地域よりも深刻な被曝を経験すると予測されています.
結論:
- 将来の極端な熱現象は,世界の生物多様性にとって重大な脅威となり,多くの種に恒常的な重度の熱ストレスを引き起こす可能性があります.
- 低排出率の未来 (SSP1-2.6) は,脊椎動物への曝露を大幅に削減し,多くの種の集団で深刻な影響を防ぐことができます.
- 温室効果ガスの排出量の大幅な削減が緊急に必要であり,陸上の脊椎動物が極端な熱ストレスにさらされている状況を緩和します.
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