地球上の森林を人間による管理から解放すれば どれくらいの炭素を貯蔵できるでしょうか?
Caspar T J Roebroek1,2, Gregory Duveiller3, Sonia I Seneviratne2
1European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
まとめ
人間による干渉から森林を保護することで 炭素の蓄積を大幅に促進し 森林のバイオマスを最大16%増加させることができます しかし,この戦略だけでは,排出量削減なしに現在の炭素排出量を相殺する可能性は限られています.
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 林業
- 気候変動に関する研究
背景:
- 森林の炭素貯蔵は,地球温暖化を1.5°Cに制限することを目指す気候変動緩和政策にとって極めて重要です.
- 伐採などの森林管理の実践が森林の炭素予算に及ぼす正確な影響は十分に理解されていません.
研究 の 目的:
- 人間による干渉を除去することで,森林の地上のバイオマス炭素貯蔵量の潜在的増加を定量化する.
- 森林における炭素吸収の強化による緩和の可能性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 世界的な森林バイオマスと管理データの統合
- 機械学習技術を応用して,地上のバイオマスの変化をモデル化する.
主要な成果:
- 地球上の森林の地表生物質を 44.1ペタグラム (15%~16%増加) 増やすことができます
- この潜在的増加は,現在の人為的な二酸化炭素 (CO2) 排出量の約4年に相当します.
結論:
- 森林の炭素吸収源を保存することは 残留排出量を相殺するために不可欠です
- 排出量削減なしでの森林収縮のみが 気候緩和の可能性を限る.
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