トロピカルウォーターとCO2の年間成長率の相関がますますマイナスになる
Laibao Liu1, Philippe Ciais2, Mengxi Wu3
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. laibao.liu@env.ethz.ch.
Nature
|May 31, 2023
まとめ
温度だけでなく 熱帯の水の利用可能性も 地球上の炭素循環を 制御しています この変化は二酸化炭素の除去と 気候フィードバックの予測に影響を及ぼし モデルではこの水と炭素の結合が 強化されるのを捉えられないのです
科学分野:
- 地球システム科学
- 気候科学
- エコロジー
背景:
- 地球上の生態系は,人類による二酸化炭素の排出量の大きな部分を吸収します.
- 気候変動下で将来の土地の炭素吸収行動を予測することは,炭素-気候フィードバックの不確実性のために困難です.
- 大気中の二酸化炭素増加率 (CGR) の年次変動は,特に熱帯地域で,陸地と大気間の炭素の流れに関する洞察を提供します.
研究 の 目的:
- 熱帯気候条件とCGRの間の年次関係の変化を調査する.
- CGRの変動性に対する水の利用可能性と温度の影響を評価する.
- これらの関係をシミュレートする地球のシステムと地表モデルのパフォーマンスを評価する.
主な方法:
- 全世界の大気中のCO2データの分析
- 地上水貯蔵と降水記録を利用した.
- 変化する気候の下での変化を特定するために,1960年-1989年および1989年-2018年の関係を比較した.
主要な成果:
- 熱帯水資源とCGRの関連性は,1989年から2018年にかけて,1960年から1989年に比べてより強くなり,より否定的になりました.
- この強まる結合は,エルニーニョ/南方振動のシフトに関連した熱帯水の利用可能性の変化から生じる可能性があります.
- 観測された水と炭素の結合の強まりを 正確に再現することができません
結論:
- 地上炭素循環の年次変動の主な要因として 熱帯水資源の利用可能性が浮上しています
- この発見は,熱帯の陸上の炭素気候のフィードバックが,水の利用可能性によって決定的に変化していることを示しています.
- 現在のモデルは水と炭素と気候の ダイナミックな相互作用を捉えるために改善する必要があります
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