中国における太陽光発電と風力発電への移行を加速する

Yijing Wang¹, Rong Wang^{2,3,4,5,6,7,8}, Katsumasa Tanaka^9,10

¹Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Nature

|July 26, 2023

まとめ

中国は,太陽光発電と風力発電を大幅に増やすことで,2060年の炭素中立目標を達成できます. 発電所の設置とネットワークのインフラを最適化することで容量を増やし炭素削減コストを削減できます

科学分野:

エネルギーシステム分析
再生可能エネルギー政策
気候変動の緩和

背景:

中国は2060年までに炭素中立を目指しており,光伏 (PV) と風力発電の容量を大幅に増やす必要がある.
現在の予測は,過去の速度と第14回エネルギー開発計画に基づいて,2060年までに年間5〜9.5PWhの発電能力を予測しており,年間10〜15PWhの目標には達していない.

研究の目的:

PVと風力発電の導入を最適化することで,中国の炭素中立性の目標を達成できるかどうかを判断する.
超高電圧 (UHV) 送電とエネルギー貯蔵を含むネットワークの調整による再生可能エネルギーの容量とコストへの影響を評価する.
再生可能エネルギーへの浸透率の向上による投資需要と削減コストを含む経済的影響を分析する.

主な方法:

3,844 基の発電所と風力発電所を最適化しました
超高圧 (UHV) 送電インフラの統合
エネルギー貯蔵ソリューションと電力負荷の柔軟性を組み込む.
テクノロジーのコストと導入効率における学習ダイナミクスの考慮

主要な成果:

年間15PWhの太陽光発電と風力発電の能力を達成し,CFEDが予測した年間9PWhを上回りました.
平均的な二酸化炭素削減コストを US $ 97 から US $ 6 トンに削減しました.
2020年の770億米ドルから2050年代に年間4260億米ドルに増加した年次投資の必要性を特定した.
貧困地域の住民の収入の増加を含む副利益が強調されました

結論:

中国の2060年の炭素中立目標は戦略的なグリッドの強化と並行して最適化された太陽光発電と風力発電の展開で達成可能である.
エネルギー貯蔵,送電の拡大,需要面の柔軟性による電力システムのアップグレードは,費用対効果の高い再生可能エネルギーの拡大に不可欠です.
再生可能エネルギーインフラへの大きな投資は必要ですが,経済的にも環境的にも大きな利益をもたらします.

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