地球温暖化によるラニーニャ現象の発生率増加
Nature
|July 26, 2023
まとめ
連続したラニーニャ現象は 温室効果ガスの排出により 頻度が増加すると予測されています この傾向は,地球規模の生態系と農業に影響を与える 極端な気候の頻度が増加していることを示唆しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 海洋学
- 大気科学
背景:
- エルニーニョとラニーニャは 世界的な天候に影響を与える 重要な気候パターンです
- 連続したラニーニャ現象は 単年の出来事と比較して 気候の影響を延長します
- 将来のラ・ニーニャの頻度の変化は不確実である.
研究 の 目的:
- 様々な温室効果ガスの排出シナリオの下で,連続したラニャ現象の将来の頻度を調査する.
- ラニーニャ現象の持続時間における変化を促す 根本的な気候の動態を理解する.
主な方法:
- 将来の温室効果ガスの強制下での気候モデルを利用した.
- ラニャ現象の頻度と特性を評価するためのモデル出力を分析した.
- ラ・ニーニャの持続性を調節する太平洋の温暖化パターンの役割を調べた.
主要な成果:
- 連続したラニーニャの頻度が19% (低排出量) から33% (高排出量) 増加すると予測されています.
- 高度な排出シナリオは,ラニャの頻度が増加したモデル間の強いコンセンサスを示しています.
- 温室効果は異常な東風を助長し ラニーニャの異常な寒さを延ばします
結論:
- 連続したラニーニャ現象は 21世紀を通して 頻度が上がるでしょう
- これらの現象の頻度が増加すると 極端な気候がより頻繁で長く続くことになるでしょう
- ENSOのダイナミクスに人類による気候変動が及ぼす影響が顕著である.
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