再生可能エネルギーのコストの低下と気候変動は,アフリカの水力発電の拡大の必要性を抑制しています
Angelo Carlino1,2, Matthias Wildemeersch2, Celray James Chawanda3
1Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy.
まとめ
アフリカ
科学分野:
- エネルギーシステム分析
- 気候変動の影響
- 再生可能エネルギー経済
背景:
- アフリカでは 300 以上の水力発電プロジェクトが計画されています
- 水力気候と社会経済の変化は,水力発電の計画に重大な不確実性をもたらします.
研究 の 目的:
- アフリカにおける水力発電の経済的な実現可能性を評価する.
- アフリカのエネルギーシステムの未来を様々なシナリオで分析する.
- 水力発電に対する風力発電と太陽光発電の競争力を決定する.
主な方法:
- アフリカのエネルギーシステムのシナリオ分析 (2020-2050年)
- エネルギー需要,土地利用の変化,水資源への気候変動の評価
- 水力発電プロジェクトの経済的魅力評価
主要な成果:
- 候補水力発電の40~68%しか経済的に魅力的ではない.
- 風力発電と太陽光発電は2030年までに水力発電を上回ると予測されています
- 水気気候の変動に対する信頼性のために,年間1.8%~4%の追加投資が必要である.
結論:
- 水力発電の経済的な魅力は限られており,風と太陽が支配的なエネルギー源として浮上しています.
- エネルギーシステムの信頼性と赤字の対処のために,投資の拡大と国際協力が不可欠です.
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