気候変動の緩和のために森林保全による炭素補償を行うために必要な行動
Thales A P West1,2, Sven Wunder3,4, Erin O Sills5
1Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
まとめ
ほとんどの自発的な森林伐採を回避したプロジェクトは,森林の減少に最小限の影響を及ぼしています. 達成された削減はしばしば主張されたより少ないため,炭素オフセットのベースライン方法論の問題が浮き彫りにされています.
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 気候変動に関する研究
- 森林管理
背景:
- 避けられた森林破壊による炭素補償は,予測された森林破壊に対する業績 (前もっての基準) に基づいています.
- これらのプロジェクトの真の影響を評価することは,炭素の会計と保全のインセンティブにとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 森林伐採を減らすために,自発的に森林伐採を回避するプロジェクトの有効性を評価する.
- プロジェクトが主張した森林破壊の削減と実際の対照的結果を比較する.
主な方法:
- 原因推論のための合成制御方法を使用した.
- 3つの大陸の6カ国で26のプロジェクトサイトを分析しました.
- 森林伐採のベースラインと,コントロールエリアを基にした事後の対照値を比較した.
主要な成果:
- ほとんどのプロジェクトでは 森林伐採を大幅に削減できませんでした
- 減少したプロジェクトの影響は,主張されたものよりかなり低かった.
- 差異は,プロジェクトのベースラインと制御領域の森林破壊の観測の違いから生じます.
結論:
- 森林伐採のベースラインを構成する現在の方法論は 緊急に改定する必要があります
- 森林伐採の削減を プロジェクトに割り当てるには 精密なベースライン構築が不可欠です
- 森林保全のインセンティブと グローバルな炭素会計の整合性を維持するために 修正が必要である.
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