メキシコで暴力を減らす唯一の方法は,カルテルの採用を減らすことです

Rafael Prieto-Curiel¹, Gian Maria Campedelli², Alejandro Hope³

¹Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|September 21, 2023

まとめ

メキシコの麻薬カルテルは損失にもかかわらず週に350~370人のメンバーを募集しています逆説的に言えば収監が増加すると暴力やカルテルの成長が加速します

科学分野:

犯罪学
社会学
政治科学

背景:

メキシコのカルテルは,カルテルの間の紛争と投獄により,メンバーの減少を大幅に経験しています.
カルテルの暴力はメンバーを亡くしたにもかかわらず継続し過去10年間はさらに増加しています
カルテルのレジリエンスとその暴力への影響を理解することは公共の安全と政策立案に不可欠です

研究の目的:

メキシコにおけるカルテル規模の変化の動態を調査する.
カルテルの採用と維持を促す主要な要因を特定する.
カルテルの規模,暴力, 国家の無力さとの関係を分析する

主な方法:

メキシコでの殺人,行方不明者,監禁に関する 10年間のデータを活用した.
カルテルの相互作用と衝突パターンに関する組み込み情報
カルテルの規模を推し進める要因として採用,州無力化,紛争,飽和を分析するモデルを開発した.

主要な成果:

2022年までにメキシコのカルテルは 16万から18万5千人のメンバーを擁し主要な雇用者として位置づけられました
カルテルの総損失を相殺し破綻を回避するために週に350~370人を採用することが必要です
国家の無力化 (投獄) の増加は,より高い殺人率と,より大きなカルテル加盟と相関することが判明しました.

結論:

カルテルの回復力は,継続的な大量採用によって維持されます.
暴力やカルテルの規模を無意識に増加させることもあります
カルテルのメンバー数を減らして暴力を減らす可能性もあります

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