温暖化 気候 の 激しい 熱帯 サイクロン の 季節 的 進出
Kaiyue Shan1, Yanluan Lin2, Pao-Shin Chu3
1State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|September 27, 2023
まとめ
激しい熱帯サイクロン (TC) は,ほとんどの海域で年初に移動しています. 温室効果ガスがもたらすこの増加は,TCが他の極端な天候現象と重なり合うことによってリスクを増加させます.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 気象学
- 海洋学
背景:
- 激しい熱帯サイクロンは,生命と財産に重大な脅威をもたらします.
- TCの活動における潜在的な変化を理解することは,それらの破壊的な影響のために極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 激しい熱帯サイクロンの季節性に関する変化を調査する.
- TCの観測された季節的シフトの背後にあるドライバーを特定する.
主な方法:
- 1980年代以降の熱帯サイクロンデータの分析
- 大規模なアンサンブルと個々の強制実験を含む気候モデルシミュレーションを利用した.
- TCの季節性,急速な増強,海洋条件の関係を調べた.
主要な成果:
- 1980年代以降,ほとんどの熱帯海で観測された激しいTCの季節的な増加.
- 季節の進捗率は10年あたり3.7日 (北半球) と10年あたり3.2日 (南半球) である.
- この進歩は 温室効果ガスの強制による 海洋条件の早期発生と関連しています
結論:
- 温室効果ガスの排出は,激しいTCの有利な条件の早期発生を促しています.
- TCの季節的な増加は,他の極端な降雨イベントと同時発生する確率を高めます.
- この重複は,不釣り合いの深刻な影響をもたらすと予測されています.
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