気候変動のシナリオを排出量調査に合わせると,世界の基準が変化する
PubMedで要約を見る
まとめ
この要約は機械生成です。全国温室効果ガスインベントリー (NGHI) の会計を用いて,グローバルな気候目標を達成することは困難です. パリ協定の目標を達成するために,各国が気候変動の野心を高め,CO2排出を早期にゼロにする必要があります.
科学分野
- 気候科学
- 環境会計
- 地球システム科学
背景
- パリ協定の目標に向けた世界的な進展を正確に評価するには,緩和の経路に対する国家行動の一貫した測定が必要です.
- 国内温室効果ガスインベントリー (NGHGI) と科学的な評価は,陸上の炭素流の会計慣例が異なるため,相違がある.
- この会計のギャップは,現在の排出量推定に影響を与え,将来的な気候目標の評価を複雑にします.
研究 の 目的
- 気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) によって評価された緩和経路をNGHGIの会計慣例と整合させる.
- NGHGI条約に基づく世界的な緩和基準の達成可能性を比較する.
- 陸上での炭素フロースの計算が将来の排出軌道と気候目標に与える影響を評価する.
主な方法
- 最先端の方法論と土地の炭素循環エミュレータを使用しました.
- NGHGIの会計コンベンションとIPCCが評価した緩和経路を整合した.
- グローバル緩和基準と排出量の見積もりに対するこれらの調整の影響を分析した.
主要な成果
- グローバルな緩和基準はNGHGI条約の下で達成することがかなり困難になります.
- これらの基準を達成するには,早期にCO2ゼロのタイミングと,累積的な排出量を減らす必要があります.
- 自然な炭素除去プロセスの弱まりは 2100年までに陸上のフローを 排出源に変える可能性のある 人為的な努力を隠す可能性があります
結論
- 現在のNGHGI条約は,パリ協定の目標を達成するためのより厳格で困難な道を示しています.
- 国家は気候目標の野心を高め 地球温暖化目標と一致させなければなりません
- この調査結果は,グローバル・ストックテイクに情報を提供し,将来の気候政策を導き出す上で極めて重要です.
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