"無コスト"の気候緩和のコスト
Matthew J Kotchen1, James A Rising2, Gernot Wagner3
1School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
まとめ
気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) と経済モデルでは,温室効果ガス排出量削減に伴うコストについて異なる見積もりを示しています. これらの不一致を把握することは 効果的な気候政策の策定に不可欠です
科学分野:
- 気候変動の経済学
- 環境政策の分析
背景:
- 気候変動に関する政府間パネル (IPCC) は,気候科学と政策への影響を包括的に評価しています.
- 気候緩和戦略の財政的影響を予測するために 経済モデルが頻繁に使用されます.
研究 の 目的:
- IPCCと著名な経済モデリングの枠組みで概説されているように,排出削減の予測コストを分析し比較する.
- この2つのアプローチのコスト推定の相違に寄与する主要な要因を特定する.
主な方法:
- IPCCの評価報告書と主要な統合評価モデル (IAM) の成果の比較分析
- 気候変動緩和の経済モデルに関する文献のレビュー
主要な成果:
- IPCCが報告した排出削減コストと経済モデルによって生み出されたコストには大きな違いがある.
- 違いは,技術的進歩,政策の厳しさ,経済的影響に関する仮定の変動から生じる.
結論:
- 気候政策の経済的モデルの透明性と標準化の必要性を強調しています.
- これらの違いを調和させ,将来の気候経済予測の正確性を向上させるためには,さらなる研究が必要である.
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