自然資本のグローバル価値に対する不平等な気候の影響
B A Bastien-Olvera1,2, M N Conte3, X Dong4
1Geography Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA. bbastien@ucsd.edu.
Nature
|December 19, 2023
まとめ
2100年までに地球生態系の恩恵は9.2%減少し,国内総生産 (GDP) は1.3%減少する. 気候変動が経済生産と自然資本に与える影響を 明らかにしています
科学分野:
- 生態学と環境科学
- 気候変動の経済学
- 生態系サービスの評価
背景:
- 生態系は人間に不可欠な市場と非市場利益をもたらします
- 気候変動は生態系の分布と これらの利益の流れを 世界的に変えてしまうと予測されています
- これらの生態系の変化の社会経済的な影響を理解することは 人間の福祉にとって極めて重要です
研究 の 目的:
- 気候変動による陸地植生の変化による国レベルの経済生産の変化を推定する.
- 気候変動の影響を受ける非市場生態系の利益の価値を定量化する.
- 自然資本に依存している国々の影響の違いを評価する.
主な方法:
- 一般的な循環気候モデルによって動的グローバル植生モデル (DGVM) を利用し,植生シフトを予測した.
- 国レベルでの国内総生産 (GDP) の推定変化
- 世界銀行の資産口座指標を用いた非市場エコシステムの利益の評価
主要な成果:
- 2100年までに,SSP2-6.0の下で,世界の非市場エコシステムの利益が9.2%減少すると予測されています.
- 2100年までに世界のGDPが 平均1.3%減少すると見積もられています
- 最も貧しい50%の国が被害の90%を負担し,最も裕福な10%は損失の2%しか経験していない.
結論:
- 気候変動による生態系の変化は 特に低所得国にとって 大きな経済的リスクをもたらします
- 生態系サービスの評価は 気候変動の経済的な影響を理解する上で 極めて重要です
- 気候変動の影響が脆弱な経済に及ぼす不均衡な負担を軽減するために,政策の介入が必要である.
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