臨床予測モデルの幻想的一般化
Adam M Chekroud1,2, Matt Hawrilenko1, Hieronimus Loho2
1Spring Health, New York City, NY 10010, USA.
まとめ
治療決定に関する統計モデルでは 一般化が難しいことが示されています 統合失調症の治療結果に関する機械学習モデルは開発時に正確だったが,新しい試験では失敗し,文脈依存性を示した.
科学分野:
- 精神科
- 医療情報工学
- バイオ統計学
背景:
- 統計モデルが医療の意思決定を 強化することを期待しています
- モデルの開発は,データコストと不足により,限られたデータセットや臨床コンテキストに依存することが多い.
- 医療における予測モデルの汎用性について疑問を投げかけます
研究 の 目的:
- 医学的意思決定における統計モデルを取り巻く楽観主義を 精査する.
- 統合失調症の独立した臨床試験における機械学習モデルのパフォーマンスを検証する.
- 抗精神病薬治療の結果に関する予測モデルの一般化性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 統合失調症の臨床試験のデータを用いて 機械学習モデルが開発されました
- モデルの予測精度は,独立した臨床試験からのサンプル外データでテストされました.
- サンプル外予測のパフォーマンスを改善するために,試験間のデータプールが調査されました.
主要な成果:
- 機械学習モデルは開発されたデータセット内で高い精度を達成しました.
- このモデルは,独立したサンプル外臨床試験に適用されたとき, 偶然よりも良い結果を出さなかった.
- 試験のデータを集積しても 未知のデータに対するモデルの予測性能は向上しませんでした
結論:
- 統合失調症の治療結果を予測する 機械学習モデルは 状況に大きく依存しています
- これらのモデルは,異なる臨床試験または患者集団で限定的な一般化性を示しています.
- これらの発見は,パーソナライズされた精神科治療における現在の予測モデルの広範な適用性に異議を唱えます.
関連する概念動画
Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predicted Value
358
In healthcare diagnostics, laboratory tests play a crucial role in identifying and diagnosing a wide range of medical conditions. However, interpreting test results is not always straightforward. An abnormal test result does not always confirm the presence of a disease, just as a normal result does not guarantee its absence. To assess the reliability of these diagnostic tools, healthcare practitioners rely on two key statistical indicators: sensitivity and specificity.
Sensitivity is the...
Sensitivity is the...
358
Cause and Effect
10.9K
While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
10.9K
Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
Regression Toward the Mean
6.3K
Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
6.3K
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
43
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
43
Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
129
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
129


