アメリカ沿岸の都市が消えていく
Leonard O Ohenhen1,2, Manoochehr Shirzaei3,4,5, Chandrakanta Ojha6
1Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA. ohleonard@vt.edu.
Nature
|March 6, 2024
まとめ
沿岸地の沈下は海面上昇を悪化させ,2050年までにアメリカの都市を深刻な洪水で脅かします この土地の沈没を無視すると 洪水のリスクが過小評価され 沿岸の適応のための都市計画が不適切になります
科学分野:
- 地球と環境科学
- 地理学
- 都市計画
背景:
- 海面上昇の予測では 2050年までに 0.25~0.3mの上昇を示しています
- 沿岸の沈殿は現在の沿岸管理と都市計画において 代表が不足している要因です
- 海面上昇による影響が大きく悪化し 洪水や洪水のリスクが増加します
研究 の 目的:
- 2050年までに米国の主要沿岸都市32都市で 潜在的に浸水する地域を定量化する
- 海面上昇予測と高解像度の垂直陸地移動と海面上昇データを統合する.
- 沿岸の沈殿が都市部の人々や財産に及ぼす脅威を強調する.
主な方法:
- 高解像度の垂直陸地運動 (陸地標高の変化) と標高データセットを組み合わせた.
- 2050年の海面上昇予測を活用した.
- 32のアメリカの沿岸都市で,潜在的に浸水された土地,人口,および資産の被曝を定量化しました.
主要な成果:
- 1,006から1,389 km2の陸地面積は,2050年までに相対的な海面上昇によって脅かされます.
- 5万5千から27万3千人の人々と3万1千から17万1千の物件が 危険にさらされています
- 分析は,空間的に変動する土地沈没を無視すると,不正確な曝露予測につながることを示しています.
結論:
- 沿岸の沈没を考慮しないことは,米国の沿岸都市における洪水リスクの過小評価につながります.
- 比較的海面上昇がもたらす適応の課題の規模は 現在,米国のほとんどの沿岸都市では十分に認識されていません.
- 正確な都市計画と沿岸管理は,海面上昇の影響評価に土地沈みデータを統合する必要があります.
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