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北米 で の 干ばつ は 夜間 の 火災 を 引き起こし 維持 し て いる
Kaiwei Luo1, Xianli Wang2,3, Mark de Jong4
1Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. kaiwei@ualberta.ca.
Nature
|March 14, 2024
まとめ
北米では 干ばつにより 史上初の夜間火災が発生し 伝統的な火災モデルに 異議を唱えています 干ばつによる自然災害の理解は 森林火災の管理と予測の改善に不可欠です
科学分野:
- 野火の動態と火災天候の分析
- 気候変動による自然災害への影響
- 火災発生の地理空間分析
背景:
- 伝統的な火災科学は昼間の火災サイクルと 夜間の活動が減少すると仮定しています
- 北米で発生している夜間燃焼事件 (OBE) は,未知のドライバーと影響を提示しています.
- 現在の火災管理戦略は,OBEsに対処するのに不十分かもしれません.
研究 の 目的:
- 北米の野火における夜間燃焼現象 (OBE) の原因と特徴を調査する.
- "活発な昼と静かな夜"の 昼間火災サイクルモデルに挑戦するためです
- 干ばつ状態がOBEを促進する役割とその火災管理への影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 地静止衛星データと地上の火災記録を用いて,2017年から2020年にかけての23,557件の火災の1時間1日のサイクルを分析した.
- 一夜間の燃焼事件 (OBEs) の1,095の識別と特徴付け
- OBEの頻度,火災の大きさ,そして干ばつ状態の相関分析.
主要な成果:
- 夜間燃焼事件 (OBEs) は,大規模な火災 (>1,000 ha) と強く関連しており,そのような火災の20%で発生しました.
- 干ばつ状態,特に蓄積された燃料の干ばつと利用可能性は,最近のOBEの主な要因として特定されました.
- 昼間の干ばつ指標は,次の夜にOBEの発生を予測することが判明しました.
結論:
- 乾燥状態は夜間燃焼を大きく促進し 大規模で持続的な森林火災を助長します
- OBEsの頻度は火災の大きさと正の相関関係があり,連続した夜間の燃焼につながる可能性があります.
- 干ばつ指標を組み込んだ予測モデルは,昼間の火災のサイクルが加速していることを示す夜間火災の早期発見と管理に役立ちます.
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