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2023 年 の 夏 の 暖かさ は,過去 2,000 年 に 比べ て 異なっ て い ます
Jan Esper1,2, Max Torbenson3, Ulf Büntgen4,5,6
1Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany. esper@uni-mainz.de.
Nature
|May 14, 2024
まとめ
2023年は北半球で最も暑い夏の記録を打ち破り 自然の気象変動を大幅に上回りました この極端な温暖化により 炭素排出量を削減する 緊急の必要性が強調されています
科学分野:
- 古代気候学
- 気候科学
- 環境科学
背景:
- 近年では,2023年も含め,世界最高気温を記録しています.
- 現在の温暖化を正確に評価するには 長期的な自然気象変動との比較が必要です
- 19世紀の歴史的な気象データは 過去の気温を過大評価し 比較を複雑にします
研究 の 目的:
- 北半球の2023年の夏の気温を,2000年の古気候記録の中で文脈化するために.
- 2023年の夏の気温が 自然の気象変動の限界を超えているかどうかを判断する.
- 極端な温暖化が気候政策に及ぼす影響を強調する
主な方法:
- 6~8月の地表気温の観測データと再構築データを組み合わせた.
- 北半球の熱帯地域における 過去2000年の気温記録を分析した.
- 自然な気候の変動範囲を定義するために統計的方法を使用した.
主要な成果:
- 北半球における2023年の熱帯外夏は,2000年の記録の中で最も暑かった.
- 2023年の気温は,自然変動の95%信頼区間を0.5°C以上上回った.
- 2023年の夏と再構築された最も寒い夏 (CE 536) の間の温度差は3.93 °Cであった.
結論:
- 2023年の夏の極端な気温は,エルニーニョによって増幅された温室効果ガスによる温暖化傾向と一致しています.
- この研究は,現在の温暖化が 自然の気象変動の範囲を超えているという 強力な証拠を提供します.
- この調査結果は,炭素排出量を削減するための国際協定の実施の必要性を強調しています.
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