観測に制限された予測は,予想よりも長い乾燥期を明らかにします
Irina Y Petrova1, Diego G Miralles2, Florent Brient3
1H-CEL, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. irina.petrova@ugent.be.
Nature
|September 18, 2024
まとめ
気候モデルでは 将来の干ばつを過小評価しています 新しく開発されたEC (Emergent Constraints) の方法により,年間干ばつの期間が長くなり,以前予想されていたよりも世界的な干ばつリスクが大きいことが明らかになりました.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境モデリング
- 干ばつ予測
背景:
- 気候モデルでは 干ばつの極端が 世界的に悪化すると予測されています
- 現在の予測では 規模とタイミングに自信がなく 干ばつの増加に社会は準備ができていません
研究 の 目的:
- 気候モデルによる 干ばつ予測の不確実性を減らす
- 最も長い年間干ばつ (LAD) の予測を,新興制約 (EC) を使用して改善する.
主な方法:
- 観測データによる気候モデル予測の制限
- LADの予測を洗練するために,新たに提案された新興制約 (EC) を利用する.
- バイアスとフィードバックメカニズムを特定するために2世代の気候モデルを分析する.
主要な成果:
- ECメソッドは,LADの予測の不確実性を全体で10~26%減少させた.
- EC調整された予測では,現在のシナリオと比較して,LADは42%から44%増加している.
- 陸上での平均LADは,この世紀末までに10日増加する可能性があります.
結論:
- 社会や生態系は 予想以上に早く 干ばつのリスクに直面しています
- より信頼性の高い干ばつ予測への道を開きます.
- モデルバイアスの理解は 気候変動の影響の正確な評価に不可欠です
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