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アメリカ合衆国における熱帯サイクロンによる死亡率
Rachel Young1,2,3, Solomon Hsiang4,5,6
1Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Nature
|October 2, 2024
まとめ
ハリケーンや熱帯嵐を含む熱帯サイクロンは,最大15年間,長期的に顕著な死亡率を引き起こします. これらの出来事は 総死亡率に大きく寄与し 特に乳児や黒人人口に 影響を及ぼしています
科学分野:
- 環境 健康
- 流行病学について
- 公衆衛生
背景:
- 自然災害は 複雑な社会的な出来事を引き起こし 即効性も遅延性も 引き起こします
- 熱帯サイクロン (TC) による即時死亡は記録されていますが,長期的な健康への影響はほとんど不明です.
- TCは世界の経済に重大な影響を及ぼしますが,人間の死亡率に対するその完全な影響については,さらなる調査が必要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 隣接する米国 (CONUS) のヒトの死亡率に対するTCの長期的な影響を評価する.
- 長期間にわたるTCに関連した過剰な死亡負担を定量化します.
- TCによる死亡率に不釣り合いな人口集団を特定する.
主な方法:
- 1930年から2015年の間に発生したTCに関するCONUSにおける死亡率データの大規模分析
- 過去501回の熱帯サイクロンの 長期的な健康への影響を追跡調査
- 過剰な死亡率と全体の死亡率への貢献を推定する.
主要な成果:
- TCの発生から最大15年間,過剰死亡率の有意な増加が続いている.
- 平均的なTCは7,000~11,000人の過剰死亡を引き起こし,すぐに報告された死亡者をはるかに超えていると推定されています.
- TCはCONUSの全死亡の3.2-5.1%を占め,乳児,若年成人,黒人人口に不釣り合いな影響を及ぼしています.
結論:
- TCは CONUSで以前は過小評価されていた死亡リスクの重要な要因です.
- TCの長期的な健康への影響,特に過剰な死亡率は,公衆衛生に重大な影響を及ぼします.
- TCによる過剰死亡のメカニズムに関するさらなる研究は,健康上の利益の軽減に不可欠です.
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