海洋表面温度観測における20世紀初頭の冷気偏差
Sebastian Sippel1,2, Elizabeth C Kent3, Nicolai Meinshausen4
1Institute for Meteorology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany. sebastian.sippel@uni-leipzig.de.
Nature
|November 20, 2024
まとめ
20世紀初頭の世界気温は,海洋気温記録の冷たいバイアスのために過小評価されている可能性があります. このバイアスを修正すると,これまで考えられていたより控えめな温暖化傾向と低い変動が明らかになる.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 古代気候学
- 海洋学
背景:
- 地球全体の平均地表温度記録は,海面と陸の気温を組み合わせており,気候変動の理解には極めて重要です.
- 初期の世界的な気温記録 (20世紀初頭) は,測定の変化,不完全なデータ,空間的カバーのギャップのために不確実性を示す.
研究 の 目的:
- 20世紀初頭の海温データにおける 潜在的なバイアスを調査するためです
- 独立した海と陸のデータを用いて地球平均表面温度の再構築を再評価する.
主な方法:
- 海洋と陸地の独立したデータセットを使用して,地球全体の平均地表温度を統計的に再構築する.
- 属性,時間スケール,沿岸グリッドの分析,そして発見を支持する古気候データ.
主要な成果:
- 海洋ベースの温度再構築 (1900年-1930年) は,陸地ベースのものよりも約0.26°C寒い.
- 海洋温度の観測された冷たい異常は強制されず,内部気候モデルの変動性によって説明されません.
- 証拠は,20世紀初頭の世界の海面温度記録に相当な冷たいバイアスを示唆しています.
結論:
- 20世紀初頭の温暖化傾向はより控えめになる.
- 調整されたデータは10年スケールの変動が低く,シミュレートされた温暖化と観測された温暖化との間のよりよい一致を示しています.
- この発見は 過去の気候の変動と 気候モデルの検証に関する理解に影響を与えます
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