2023年から2024年の海面温度上昇は予想外だが,予想外ではない
Jens Terhaar1,2, Friedrich A Burger3,4, Linus Vogt5
1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. jens.terhaar@unibe.ch.
Nature
|March 13, 2025
まとめ
2023年4月から2024年3月の世界の海洋温度の記録破りは,温暖化傾向による512年に1回の出来事であり,非常にまれでした. 気候モデルは海面の 極端な温度上昇を正確にシミュレートします
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 海洋学
- 環境科学
背景:
- 2023年4月以降,世界の海洋表面温度は1年以上にわたって記録的な高さに達した.
- このイベントは以前の記録を0.25°Cで上回り,その希少性とモデル表現に関する調査を促しました.
研究 の 目的:
- 海洋表面温度 (SST) の 記録的な上昇の特異性を 確認するためです
- このような極端な SST イベントをシミュレートする気候モデルの能力を評価する.
主な方法:
- SSTジャンプ周波数を分析するために,観察ベースの合成タイムシリーズの構築.
- 極端な SST イベントを再現するモデルのパフォーマンスを評価するために,270の気候モデルシミュレーションを使用しました.
主要な成果:
- 現在の温暖化傾向では,前回の記録を0.25°C上回る世界的なSSTの上昇は512年に1回の出来事です.
- 地球温暖化傾向がなければ このような出来事は事実上不可能です
- 気候モデルでは 記録的なSSTの飛躍を成功裏にシミュレートし その有用性を検証しています
結論:
- 2023~2024年の記録的なSSTの上昇は 極端な出来事で 人為的な気候変動なしでは 起こりそうにないものでした
- 気候モデルは 極端な海洋温暖化現象の 原因と影響を理解するための 信頼できるツールです
- 海面の気温は長期の温暖化傾向に戻ると予測されています
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