気候の極端な状況に生涯さらされるという前例のない世界的な現象

Luke Grant^1,2, Inne Vanderkelen^3,4,5, Lukas Gudmundsson⁶

¹Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. luke.grant@ec.gc.ca.

Nature

|May 7, 2025

まとめ

若い世代は地球温暖化による熱波や洪水のような極端な気候に生涯で曝される可能性が高まっています温室効果ガスの排出を緊急に削減することは,これらの前例のないリスクを軽減するために不可欠です.

科学分野:

気候科学
環境科学
人口統計

背景:

人為的な気候変動は極端な気候の頻度と強さを増しています
これらの極端な出来事に対する累積的な生涯の暴露はまだ十分に理解されていません

研究の目的:

気候の極端な状況に直面する人々の数を予測する
異なる地球温暖化の経路がこの暴露に与える影響を評価する.

主な方法:

気候モデル,影響モデル,人口統計データを活用した.
熱波,収穫不良,川の洪水,干ばつ,森林火災,熱帯サイクロンに曝される可能性
工業化以前の気候の 99.99パーセントを超えた前例のない被曝と定義されています

主要な成果:

1960年から2020年までの間に,現在の政策 (2.7°Cの温暖化) の下で,前例のない気候の極端に生涯にわたって曝露される人々の割合は少なくとも2倍になると予測されています.
1.5°Cの経路では 2020年に生まれた人の52%が前例のない熱波にさらされます
高温のシナリオ (3.5°C) は,熱波 (92%),収穫失敗 (29%),川の洪水 (14%) の割合を劇的に増加させる.
脆弱な集団は前例のない熱波にさらされるリスクが大きくなっています

結論:

深刻で持続的な温室効果ガスの削減は不可欠です.
気候変動の負荷を現在の世代と将来の世代に軽減するには緩和が不可欠です
気候変動の危険から若者を守るには緊急の行動が必要です

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