気候変動が世界の農業に与える影響
Andrew Hultgren1, Tamma Carleton2,3, Michael Delgado4
1Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA. ahultgr@illinois.edu.
Nature
|June 18, 2025
まとめ
気候変動は世界の食糧システムに重大な損失をもたらし,1°Cの上昇ごとに年間5.5 × 1014 kcalと推定されています. 適応と収入の増加によって 損失は軽減されますが 食糧安全保障には大きな課題が残っています
科学分野:
- 農業科学
- 気候科学
- 環境科学
背景:
- 気候変動は世界の食糧システムに重大な脅威をもたらしています
- 農業の適応が気候変動による損失を軽減できる程度は議論されている.
- 過去の研究では,現実世界の生産者適応の体系的,全体的な分析が欠けていました.
研究 の 目的:
- 農業生産性に対する世界の生産者適応の影響を経験的に推定する.
- 気候変動下で世界の食糧安全保障を確保するために必要な適応の規模を定量化する.
主な方法:
- 12,658の地域の6つの主食作物の縦断データを使用し,世界の作物カロリーの3分の2をカバーしました.
- 世界平均地表温度 (GMST) の上昇が作物生産と適応に与える影響を推定するために統計分析を用いた.
主要な成果:
- 世界的な生産量は,1°CのGMST上昇ごとに年間5.5 × 1014 kcal減少する.
- 適応と所得の増加により,2050年までに世界の損失の23%,2100年までに34%を軽減すると予測されています (中等排出量シナリオ).
- 大半の主食作物では,実質的な残留損失が予想され,影響は現在の農業の穀物箱に集中しています.
結論:
- 適応と収入の成長にもかかわらず,世界の食糧生産に大きな損失が予想されます.
- 変化する気候で 食料安全保障を確保するには 大規模なイノベーションや 耕作地の拡大や 適応が必要になります
- 影響は低所得地域に限ったものではなく,主要な穀物箱は相当な損失に直面しています.
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