COVID-19 パンデミックの間,ブラジルの州で結核症例検出の混乱を定量化する
Melanie H Chitwood1, Nicolas A Menzies2, Patricia Bartholomay3
1Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States.
International journal of epidemiology
|August 21, 2025
まとめ
COVID-19 パンデミックは,ブラジルで結核 (TB) の診断を妨げ,2020年4月から2021年12月の間に推定20671件の結核症例が報告されなかった. 多くの州では2021年までに 結核の検知率を 回復できませんでした
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 公衆衛生
- 感染症モデリング
背景:
- 世界的な結核 (TB) 監視とケアは,COVID-19のパンデミックにより大きな障害に直面しました.
- ブラジルでは パンデミック初期に 結核の報告率が低下しました
- 医療制度の混乱が結核対策に与える影響を定量化するには 強力なモデルベースの方法が必要です
研究 の 目的:
- ブラジルの州全体で結核の発生率と症例検出率に対するCOVID-19のパンデミックの影響を評価する.
- パンデミックに伴う医療の障害による 結核の未確認症例の数を定量化する.
主な方法:
- 2016年から2021年のTB発生率と症例検出率を推定するために,ベイジアン証拠合成モデルを使用した.
- 従業員は分析のために例行的に症例報告と死亡率データを収集した.
- 州レベルでの未診断の症状性結核に関連する要因を特定するためにメタリグレッションフレームワークを適用しました.
主要な成果:
- 2020年4月以降,ブラジルのほとんどの州で症状性結核を診断する確率は著しく減少しました.
- 結核の発生率は当初わずかに減少したが,2021年には回復した.
- 2020年4月から2021年12月までの間に,全国で推定20671人の結核症例が,パンデミックに関連した障害のために見逃された.
結論:
- COVID-19 パンデミックの間,ブラジルのヘルスケアシステムの障害により,症状のある結核患者の多くが診断を受けることができませんでした.
- 一部の州では結核症例の検出が急速に回復しているが,多くの州では2021年まで,継続的に高率の未確認症例が発生している.
- この発見は,公衆衛生上の緊急事態が重要な疾病管理プログラムに及ぼす長期的な影響を強調しています.
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