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沿岸の洪水リスクと社会経済的な曝露の交差点を探る:中国の沿岸地帯からの証拠
He Xu1, Xiyong Hou2, Baolei Zhang3
1College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, PR China; Hydro-environmental Research Centre, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
Journal of environmental management
|August 22, 2025
まとめ
海面上昇により,中国沿岸の洪水リスクが増加しています. この研究は,沿岸の洪水リスクと社会経済的な曝露の間の重要な空間的相関を明らかにし,緊急かつ長期的な適応戦略を必要とする地域を強調しています.
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 気候変動への適応
- 社会経済的リスク評価
背景:
- 海面上昇と沿岸の洪水は,特に中国の沿岸地帯 (CCZ) に影響を及ぼす世界的な脅威です.
- 沿岸の洪水リスク (CFH) と社会経済的な曝露 (SEE) の間の長期的な空間的相互作用を理解することは,正確なリスク評価と効果的な管理に不可欠です.
- 脆弱な沿岸地域の複雑で変化するリスクに対処するには,既存の枠組みは不十分です.
研究 の 目的:
- 2030年から2100年までの CCZにおける沿岸の洪水リスクと社会経済的曝露の空間時間的交差パターンを分析する.
- これらのパターンを様々な代表的な集中パスウェイ-共有社会経済パスウェイ (RCP-SSP) のシナリオで予測する.
- 沿岸の回復力を高めるために 異なるリスク管理と適応戦略を策定する.
主な方法:
- CFHとSEEの空間的相関を評価するために,Bivariate Local Moran's Iアプローチを使用しました.
- 影響深さの関数を使って CFH を評価する.
- 分析的階層プロセス-エントロピー加重 (AHP-EW) 方法によって定量化されたSEE.
主要な成果:
- すべてのRCP-SSPシナリオでは,特に広東,江蘇,江で"高高"クラスター (高CFH,高SEE) が2100年までに大幅に拡大すると予測されています.
- "高低"クラスター (高CFH,低SEE) も,主に江蘇,山東,上海で拡大し,長期的な予防措置を必要とする地域を示します.
- 2100年までに,RCP8.5-SSP5シナリオでは",ハイ・ハイ"クラスターは,実質的なGDPと人口をカバーし,安定に対する深刻な脅威を意味すると予測されています.
結論:
- この研究は,沿岸の洪水リスクの特定の空間的なパターンに合わせた異なるリスク管理アプローチの必要性を強調しています.
- "ハイハイ"クラスター地域では,資産と人口を保護するために,即時で強力な介入が不可欠です.
- 将来のリスクを軽減するために,長期の予防戦略が推奨されています.
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