原因幻想における以前の信念の役割
David W Ng1, Jessica C Lee1, Peter F Lovibond2
1School of Psychology, University of Sydney, Australia; School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Australia.
Cognition
|August 23, 2025
まとめ
人々が関連のない出来事の関係を認識する因果的な幻想は,学習された誤りではなく,初期的な肯定的な信念から生じる可能性があります. この研究は 既成の誤った信念ではなく 誤った仮定を修正する失敗を示唆しています
科学分野:
- 認知心理学
- 原因推論
- 人間 の 意思決定
背景:
- 原因の錯覚は 関連のないヒントと結果が 関連していると認識されたときに起こります
- この現象はしばしば誤った因果的な信念の発展としてモデル化されます.
- 以前の研究では 経験を通して 信念が獲得される方法に 焦点を当てていました
研究 の 目的:
- ゼロコンティンゲンシータスクにおける因果錯覚の起源を調査する.
- 原因錯覚が得られたものなのか,それとも修正されていない以前の信念の結果なのかを判断する.
- 過去の信念が因果的な判断に及ぼす影響を調べる.
主な方法:
- キューアウトカム予測タスクを使用して3つの実験が行われました.
- 参加者は試験の前と後の因果関係を評価した.
- 信念の持続性をテストするために,異なるヒントと結果の密度 (75%) が使用されました.
主要な成果:
- 参加者は試験前に一貫して肯定的な因果的な信念を示しました.
- 信念はゼロコンティンゲンシー試験で部分的に修正されましたが,ポジティブのままです.
- 指示と予備訓練は,最初のポジティブなバイアスを排除しませんでした.
結論:
- 原因錯覚は,前向きな信念を修正する失敗を表すかもしれません.
- この発見は 原因錯覚は 独占された信念という見解に 異議を唱えるものです
- 過去の信念は 客観的なゼロコンティンゲンシーであっても 原因判断に大きく影響します
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