48 時間 の 症状 の 値 が 穿孔 付 炎 を 予測 する: 臨床 リスク モデル の 開発
Masato Fujino1, Shingo Ochiai2, Tadao Kubota3
1Department of Surgery, Tokyo Kita Medical Centre, Tokyo, Japan.
World journal of surgery
|August 24, 2025
まとめ
症状の発症から48時間以上の遅延は,穴開き性炎のリスクを大幅に高めます. この発見は,急性虫炎の穿孔の予測モデルを開発するのに役立ちます.
科学分野:
- 医学研究
- 手術の結果
- 予測モデリング
背景:
- 入院時に急性虫炎の穿孔を予測することは,治療に極めて重要です.
- この研究では,症状の発症から入院までの期間が,穿孔リスクに与える影響を評価しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 症状の発現から入院までの時間と臓炎の穴の危険との相関を評価する.
- 主要な臨床的要因を組み込んだ尾炎の穿孔の予測モデルを開発する.
主な方法:
- 急性尾炎のために尾切除を受けた414人の患者の遡及的分析.
- 患者は症状の発現時間 (0~96時間以上) に従ってグループ化されました.
- 統計分析にはROC分析と調整されたオッズ比率の計算が含まれていた.
主要な成果:
- 穿孔のリスクは,より長い時間間隔で上昇する (p < 0. 01).
- 48時間の間隔は独立したリスク因子である (adj OR = 3. 30).
- 増加したCRP (adj OR=5. 12) と尾炎 (adj OR=2. 38) も穴開きのリスクを高めます.
結論:
- 症状の発症から発症までの48時間は 虫垂炎の穿孔を効果的に予測します
- タイムラップ,CRP,アペンドリコリスの存在を組み合わせた予測モデルが提案されています.
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