代謝リスクに起因する悪性腫瘍に焦点を当てて:世界的な負担データベースの分析と将来の傾向の予測

Jiazhao Song^1,2, Jianke Ma¹, Saisai Jing¹

¹Department of Oncology, The Affiliated Cixi Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Cixi, Zhejiang, China.

International journal of surgery (London, England)

|August 25, 2025

まとめ

高い代謝リスクに関連した癌による死亡は,特に低所得地域では世界的に増加しています. 予測によると,死亡率と障害調整寿命 (DALYs) は2050年まで増加し,標的型の介入が必要となる.

科学分野:

腫瘍学
公衆衛生
流行病学

背景:

高い代謝リスクに関連する悪性腫瘍は,世界的な健康上の大きな課題です.
癌による死亡率の上昇は効果的な予防と制御戦略を求めています

研究の目的:

グローバル・バードン・オブ・ディジーズ (GBD) 2021年のデータを用いて,世界的な癌死亡率の傾向を分析する.
将来の癌の負担を予測し,リスクのある集団を特定する.

主な方法:

年齢基準の死亡率と障害調整寿命年数 (DALYs) を計算した.
社会人口統計指標 (SDIs),性別,がん発生率の相関関係を分析した.
トレンド分析のための平均年率変化 (AAPC) と将来の予測のための自動回帰的統合移動平均 (ARIMA) モデルを使用した.

主要な成果:

癌による死亡率は30年以上に渡って中間,中低,中低SDI地域で上昇傾向にあり,中低SDI地域では51%増加した.
死者数とDALYのAAPCは,それぞれ10万人あたり2.488人,2.480人に達した.
死亡率は2019年以降,SDIが高い地域ではわずかに減少したが,ARIMAモデルは2050年まで世界の増加が続くと予測している.

結論:

発見は,健康促進と臨床介入の緊急の必要性を強調しています.
継続的な医療支援は増大する世界的な癌の負担を管理するために不可欠です

キーワード:

癌について世界的な病気の負担悪性腫瘍代謝リスク

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