共有社会経済経路におけるデジタル変革
Yee Van Fan1, Charlie Wilson1,2, Marina Andrijevic2
1Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
npj climate action
|August 27, 2025
まとめ
デジタル・トランスフォーメーションは社会と経済を形作り,気候と持続可能な開発に影響を与えています. 予測では デジタル格差が持続しており, デジタル化が低かった国では 20世紀半ばまでに 45%まで上昇する見込みです.
科学分野:
- 社会経済学
- 気候科学
- 情報技術
背景:
- デジタル・トランスフォーメーションは 社会的・経済的活動に大きな影響を及ぼします
- 持続可能な開発と気候変動への影響は大きく,ポジティブとネガティブの両方の影響を及ぼします.
- 共有社会経済経路 (SSP) フレームワークはグローバル気候研究で広く使用されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 統計モデルを統合することでSSP内の将来のデジタル変革を予測する.
- デジタル技術の採用に関する文脈的な豊かさでSSPの枠組みを強化する.
- エネルギー,排出量,気候政策,持続可能な開発目標に対するデジタル化の影響を定量的に評価できるようにする.
主な方法:
- 世界12カ国の歴史データで計測された 統計モデルを使用した.
- 統合されたデジタルトランスフォーメーションの予測を確立されたSSPシナリオの枠組みに組み込む.
- 強化されたSSPの適用を実証する6つの用例を開発しました.
主要な成果:
- いくつかのシナリオで広範囲で長期にわたるデジタル格差を予測した.
- 評価された人口の最大45%が デジタル・トランスフォーメーションが低い国に住んでいることが判明しました
- 富裕国と貧乏国間の デジタル化の格差を強調しました
結論:
- SSP内のデジタルトランスフォーメーションを明示的に表現することで,そのグローバルな影響をより微妙に理解できます.
- この研究は,気候と持続可能性の取り組みにおけるデジタル化の役割を評価するための定量的なツールを提供します.
- ダイナミックな性質と社会経済的な影響により,急速なデジタル変革を予測する際の課題が認識されています.
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