中国と世界におけるダウン症の負担:GBD 2021データベースに基づく1990-2021年の傾向と将来の予測の比較分析
Xiangwen Tu1, Feng Zhang2, Junkun Chen1
1Laboratory of Eugenics Genetics, Ganzhou Women and Children's Health Care Hospital, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 27, 2025
まとめ
ダウン症候群 (DS) の病重は1990年から2021年にかけて,世界的にも中国でも減少した. 中国では死亡率と障害率の減少が速くなりましたが,発生率と罹患率は世界の平均より高いままです.
科学分野:
- 遺伝学とゲノミクス
- 公衆衛生と疫学
- 神経科学
背景:
- ダウン症候群は染色体異常に起因する 世界的な健康問題です
- 効果的な公衆衛生の介入には 中国と世界におけるDSの病重を理解することが不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 1990年から2021年までの中国と世界のダウン症の発生率,罹患率,死亡率,障害調整寿命 (DALYs) の動向を分析する.
- ベイジアン年齢-期間-コホートモデルを用いて将来の流行変化を予測する.
主な方法:
- 1990年から2021年までのデータについて,Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021データベースを利用した.
- タイムトレンド (APC,AAPC) を特定するための結合点回帰分析.
- 流行予測 (2022年-2036年) のためにベイジアン年齢期間コホート (BAPC) モデルを適用した.
主要な成果:
- 世界的な年齢標準化発生率 (ASIR) は10万人に1.27から0.97に低下し,中国のASIRは10万人に1.68から1.18に低下した.
- 世界的な年齢標準化罹患率 (ASPR) は10万人に27.98から21.07に低下し,中国のASPRは10万人に28.01から24.8に減少した.
- 中国では,年齢標準化死亡率 (ASMR) とDALY率 (ASDR) が世界平均より急激に低下した. 2036年までASPRの減少が続くと予測されています.
結論:
- ダウン症候群の病重は1990年から2021年の間に世界的にも中国でも減少しました.
- 中国では死亡率と障害率が 急速に低下していますが 発症率と罹患率は依然として高いです
- 将来の戦略は,早期発見,情報に基づいた意思決定のサポート,そして生涯にわたる多分野医療への公平なアクセスを重視すべきです.
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