中国における地域経済発展に対する気候政策の不確実性の異質な影響:二重機械学習による証拠
Zhilin Huang1, Qianyi Zhang1, Yayin Zheng2
1School of Business, Shantou University, Shantou, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 27, 2025
まとめ
気候政策の不確実性 (CPU) は,地域によって中国の経済に異なる影響を及ぼします. 発展した地域は恩恵を受け,発展していない地域は悪影響を受け,炭素中立性の目標に合わせて政策を策定する必要がある.
科学分野:
- 環境経済学
- 地域経済
- 政策分析
背景:
- 気候変動は世界的な経済課題を 引き起こしています
- 炭素中立を目指す中国には 気候変動に関する様々な政策があります
- 政策の不確実性は,特に経済発展が異なる地域ではリスクを生み出します.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候政策の不確実性 (CPU) が一人当たりの総生産価値に与える異質な影響を調査する.
- 中国の経済発展レベルが異なる地域におけるこれらの影響を分析する.
主な方法:
- 地方経済のクラスター分析
- 原因推論のための二重機械学習 (DML)
- モデルの検証のための頑丈性試験
主要な成果:
- CPUは先進地域で顕著な効果を示しています.
- 中等に発展した地域では中等な好影響が見られる.
- ネガティブな影響は,開発が遅れた地域で,わずかなポジティブな影響が発生します.
結論:
- 気候政策の不確実性の経済的影響は地域開発レベルに大きく依存しています.
- 産業構造と財政状況を考慮して,差別化された政策対応が不可欠です.
- 調整された戦略は,CPUの悪影響を軽減し",二重炭素"の目標を達成するために不可欠です.
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