スンク・コスト・ヴィニエットの低信頼性について

Michał Białek¹, Emilia Biesiada¹

¹Institute of Psychology, University of Wroclaw, 50-527 Wrocław, Poland.

Brain sciences

|August 28, 2025

まとめ

同じ心理的構造を一貫して測定できず,信頼性と有効性が低いことが示されています. これは意思決定研究,特に神経イメージング研究に影響します.

科学分野:

意思決定の心理
行動経済学
認知バイアス

背景:

過去の投資による継続的な失敗は徹底的に研究されています
沈没コストに関するヴィンネットベースの研究は,体系的な心理学的検証が欠けている.
一般的に使われる沈没コストシナリオの信頼性と妥当性は疑わしい.

研究の目的:

既定の沈没コストの心理学的特性を評価する.
埋もれたコストシナリオが意図された心理的構造を確実に測定するかどうかを判断する.
これらの措置の内部の一貫性と外部有効性を検証する.

主な方法:

395人の参加者を対象に 2つの実験を行いました
認知的反省と社会的望ましいことの基準を活用しました
内部の一貫性,シナリオ間の相互関係,および外部有効性を評価した.

主要な成果:

内部の一貫性 (ω = 0.14-0.57) が一貫している.
類似したシナリオでも弱い相互関係がある
認知的反射と社会的望ましいこととの不一致な関係を持つ問題のある外部有効性.

結論:

現在の沈没コストは重要な測定の失敗を示しています
神経画像における神経の違いとして誤って解釈されることがあります.
特定の心理的プロセスや神経回路とリンクするためのシステマティックなシナリオ分類の必要性

キーワード:

コンストラクット有効性意思決定測定の信頼性神経イメージング沈んだコストのバイアス

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