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Updated: Sep 9, 2025

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米国における肥満の負担の進化:人口レベルのシステムダイナミクスの新しいアプローチ
Phil McEwan1, Mads Faurby2, Christopher Lübker3
1Health Economics & Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK.
Journal of medical economics
|August 29, 2025
まとめ
アメリカでは2060年までに 成人の肥満が50.5%に達し 数兆ドルもの費用がかかり 何百万もの死者を引き起こすと予測されています 体重増加を防ぐこと 特に肥満から体重増加を防ぐことが 公共の健康と経済に最大の利益をもたらします
科学分野:
- 公衆衛生
- 流行病学
- 健康 経済
背景:
- 肥満の割合は40%を超えており 悪化すると予測されています
- 肥満は健康と経済に重大な影響を及ぼし 拡大する流行病です
研究 の 目的:
- 2023年から2060年までの米国の成人肥満を予測する動的人口ベースのモデルを開発する.
- 肥満の全般的な負担を評価し,標的型介入の影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- BMIと年齢のカテゴリーで人口動態をモデル化するために微分方程式を使用しました.
- 2020年以前のNHANESデータでモデルを校正し,関連するアウトカムと流行を関連付けることで全体的な負担を計算しました.
- BMIカテゴリー間の進行率を低減することによって,シミュレートされた介入効果.
主要な成果:
- 2060年までに米国の成人肥満の発生率は50.5%に達し,累積的な直接的な医療費は20.4兆ドルに達すると予測されています.
- 肥満に関連した合併症 (ORC) が 37%増加すると予想され,これにより初等医療関係者との接触や入院が増加しました.
- BMIによる死亡率が 73%上昇すると予測され,累積的な死亡数は 3100万人,生活の質の損失は 161.3兆ドルを超えた.
- 2060年までに2500万例の肥満を予防し,かなりのコスト削減と健康上の利益をもたらします.
結論:
- 肥満を予防することは 既存の症例の管理よりも有益で 優れた総合的な利点を提供します
- 肥満から肥満への移行を予防することに焦点を当てた介入は,将来の肥満の流行とそれに関連する負担を減らすのに最も効果的です.
- この研究は,特に若年層の肥満予防に重点を置く必要性を強調しています.
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