2°Cの世界的な排出シナリオは,中国の純ゼロへの進路と一致する
Junting Zhong1,2, Xiaoye Zhang3,4, Da Zhang2,5,6
1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|August 29, 2025
まとめ
2062年までにCO2がピークに達し 2072年までに排出がゼロになるという この経路は極端な対策なしに 2°C近くの温暖化を安定させ パリ協定の目標に合致します
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境科学
- 地球システム科学
背景:
- 人為的な二酸化炭素排出は地球温暖化を引き起こしています
- 中国の炭素中立への移行は,世界の排出量に大きな影響を及ぼします.
- これらの影響を理解することは,気候予測と政策にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 中国がゼロになるという現実的なシナリオを開発する
- このシナリオでは,地球と地域の気候への影響を予測します.
- 2°C近くの温暖化を安定させる可能性を評価する.
主な方法:
- インターディシピナリ・マルチモデル・フレームワークの開発
- 統合された最新排出量リストと中国の純ゼロへの道
- 温室効果ガスと大気汚染物質の分野別統合シナリオ (SSP2-com) を構築した.
主要な成果:
- 2062年までに世界のCO2がピークに達し 2072年にはゼロになると予測され アジア太平洋地域が主導する.
- 気候エミュレータでは 2100年までに世界の気温が 2.01°Cに達し,その後 2°Cを下回ると示しています.
- バランスのとれた脱炭素化は 2°C近くの温暖化を安定させることが示唆されています
結論:
- 地球温暖化を安定させる鍵となるのは 中国によるバランスのとれた 国内主導の脱炭素化です
- 提案されたSSP2-comフレームワークは,合理的な地球システムモデルの入力を提供します.
- このアプローチは現在のコミットメントと一致し,国際協力を強化します.
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