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大人と子供の意思決定における確率の誤差
Dean A Marshall1, Elizabeth Meins2
1School of Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.
Cognition
|September 1, 2025
まとめ
大人は客観的・社会的な判断において 勝てる可能性によって影響を受けます 子供はこれらの誤謬を一貫性なく示し,相関関係はより古い年齢層にのみ現れ,ヒューリスティック思考の発達的シフトを示唆する.
科学分野:
- 認知心理学
- 発達心理学
- 行動経済学
背景:
- P ((AとB) > P ((A) の結合誤謬は,しばしば代表性ユーリスティックに起因する.
- ヒューリスティック思考は学習され,文脈に依存し,その起源を理解するには発達的なアプローチが必要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 客観的な確率と社会的判断の課題の両方で,結合の誤謬の発展軌道を調査する.
- 異なる年齢層における客観的および社会的判断における結合誤謬の関係を調べる.
- "声に出して考える"手順が誤謬を減らすのに与える影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 成人と子供 (4~11歳) を対象とした3つの研究では,チップ/ブロック分布と個々の記述に基づく社会的判断を用いて客観的な確率判断を評価した.
- 参加者はシングルプレーヤーのシナリオと2人のシナリオの勝者を決定し,社会的特徴を評価しました.
- 合理的な意思決定を促すための"大声で考える"プロトコルを使用しました.
主要な成果:
- 大人の連動の誤謬は 勝つ確率に影響され 客観的判断と社会的判断が相関していました
- 子供の客観的な確率の誤謬は年齢に依存せず,確率操作の影響を受けなかった.
- 10歳から11歳の子供には 客観的なタスクと社会的タスクが相関していましたが 幼い子供にはそうではありませんでした
- "声に出して考える"という手順は 社会的判断の誤差を減少させましたが 客観的な判断の誤差は減少させませんでした
結論:
- 客観的および社会的領域における大人の連動的誤謬は,状況的要因と関連し,影響を受けます.
- 結合錯誤の表れと相関に発達上の違いがある.
- 客観的判断と社会的判断の誤りを裏付ける認知プロセスは,部分的に区別され,時間とともに発展する可能性があります.
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