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Updated: Sep 9, 2025

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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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世界的な気候政策の不確実性と中国の株式市場との間で 多層のリスクの転移ネットワークは どの程度繋がっているのでしょうか?
Yao-Long Zhu1, Ruihan Li1, Ying-Hengtai Liu1
1School of Government, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, 650500, China.
Journal of environmental management
|September 1, 2025
まとめ
気候変動政策の不確実性 (CPU) は中国の株式市場に大きな影響を与えている. 中国の気候政策の不確実性 (CCPU) が最大のリスクであり,特に金融ストレスのとき,上流,高炭素,および銀行セクターに影響を与える.
科学分野:
- 経済学
- 環境政策
- 金融市場
背景:
- 気候政策の不確実性 (CPU) は,世界の株式市場における理論上のリスク源である.
- 中国の気候政策の不確実性 (CCPU),米国の気候政策の不確実性 (USCPU),世界のCPU (GCPU) への影響に焦点を当てた.
- これらのリスクを理解することは,市場安定と投資家の戦略にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 世界的なCPUと中国の株式変動リスクのダイナミックな関係を調べる.
- 相互接続性を理解するために,多層のリスク・スピルオーバー・ネットワークを比較する.
- 気候政策の不確実性に対して最も脆弱な特定のセクターを特定する.
主な方法:
- 多層リスク転移ネットワークの構築と比較
- 時間変数ベクトル自動回帰 (TVP-VAR) モデルの適用
- システムレベルとノードレベルでのリスク・スピールエーバーの分析
主要な成果:
- CCPUは中国の株式市場に最も強い影響を与えている.
- ネットワークの各層に 独特で絡み合った進化パターンが表れています
- アップストリーム,高炭素産業,そして銀行セクターが 最も脆弱です.
- 単層分析は リスクを過小評価します 特に金融ストレスのときです
結論:
- CCPUは中国の株式市場のボラティリティの重要な要因です.
- 多層ネットワークの分析は,複雑で時間的に変化するリスクダイナミクスを明らかにします.
- 世界経済情勢はCPU株式市場システムに大きな影響を及ぼします.
- リスクの評価,資産配分,システムリスクの防止のための洞察を提供します.
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