中国の都市部と農村部における高齢者の死亡リスクの格差
Kun Hou1, Liqiang Zhang2, Feng Yang3
1School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China. kunhou@nuist.edu.cn.
BMC public health
|September 1, 2025
まとめ
中国農村部の高齢者は 都市部の人よりも 極端な気温で死亡するリスクが高いのです 将来の気候変動は 相当な死亡率を増加させると予測され 標的を絞った公衆衛生の介入が必要になります
科学分野:
- 環境 健康
- ゲロントロジー
- 気候科学
背景:
- 適度な環境温度は 人口の健康と死亡率に大きな影響を及ぼします
- 都市部と田舎の高齢者における 温度変動による特定の死亡リスクは 十分に理解されていません
研究 の 目的:
- 低気温,高気温,極端な気温が中国における高齢者の死亡リスクに及ぼす影響を調査する.
- 農村部と都市部の人口を比較し,脆弱なサブグループを特定する.
主な方法:
- 中国長期健康長寿調査 (2005年−2018年) の27,193人の高齢者のパネルデータを活用した.
- 地域 (都市/農村),性別,病気,教育,収入,健康行動によるサブグループ分析により,死亡リスクに対する温度変動の影響を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 25°Cを超える高温の1°Cの上昇は,農村での死亡リスクを3.57% (都市での2.15%) 増加させた.
- 低気温が -15°Cを下回るごとに 農村部での死亡率は 8.94% (都市部での死亡率は 6.37%) 増加しました
- 将来の高温 (SSP5-8.5シナリオ,2020-2050) は,中国で473,351人の余分な死亡を引き起こす可能性があります.
結論:
- 高温と低温の両方から死亡するリスクは 都市部に比べてかなり高いのです
- 予想される気温上昇は中国の高齢者の死亡率を大幅に増加させるだろう.
- この調査結果は,特に農村部において,気候変動に関連するリスクを軽減するための公衆衛生政策と特化した介入の必要性を強調しています.
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