中国におけるB型肝炎の流行傾向と2035年の予測 (1990年-2021年)

Xinyue Qi¹, Yongzheng Hu¹, Wei Jiang¹

¹Department of Nephrology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China.

PloS one

|September 2, 2025

まとめ

中国におけるB型肝炎ウイルス (HBV) の感染率は全体的に減少したが,肝がんによる死亡率は,特に年配の男性では増加した. 早期の検診と治療はこの持続的な公衆衛生上の課題を管理する上で極めて重要です

科学分野:

ヘパトロジー
公衆衛生
流行病学について

背景:

肝炎Bウイルス (HBV) は,世界的な肝臓疾患と死亡率に大きな影響を及ぼし,中国が重大な負担に直面しています.
ワクチン接種と抗ウイルス療法にもかかわらず,中国におけるHBVの長期的な傾向については,さらなる説明が必要である.

研究の目的:

中国におけるB型肝炎ウイルス (HBV) 関連疾患のタイムトレンドを分析し,将来の負担を予測する.
主要な課題を特定し,HBV対策のための公衆衛生戦略を策定する.

主な方法:

中国におけるB型肝炎関連死亡率と障害調整寿命 (DALYs) のグローバル・バーデン・オブ・ディジーズ (GBD) 2021データベースのデータ (1990-2021) を利用した.
推定年率変化 (EAPC) を用いた定量化された時間的な動向

主要な成果:

B型肝炎に関連する死亡率は1990年から2021年にかけてわずかに増加し,年齢標準化死亡率 (ASMR) は著しく減少した (EAPC: -2.78).
障害調整寿命年数 (DALYs) と年齢標準化されたDALY率 (ASDR) は大幅な減少を示した (それぞれ -15.04%とEAPC: -3).
特に高齢の男性では HBV関連の肝臓がんが増加しており,標的を絞った介入が必要となっている.

結論:

HBVによる全体的な死亡率とDALYは減少しているが,HBVに関連する肝がんの増加は中国における主要な公衆衛生上の課題となっている.
予測では2035年までに HBVの負担は全体的に減少する見込みですが,肝がんの負担は変動する可能性があります.

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