世界的傾向と医療従事者 高い赤肉消費による乳がん負担の分析 1990-2050 機械学習アプローチ
1Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, China.
Frontiers in nutrition
|September 2, 2025
まとめ
乳がんによる死亡率は 年齢基準で比較すると 低くなっていますが 国によって大きな差異があります 医療従事者への戦略的投資と 食事に関するガイドラインは,世界的な負担を軽減するために不可欠です.
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 世界保健
- 腫瘍学
背景:
- 高い赤肉消費は乳がんと関連しているが,世界的な負担データと保健システムへの影響は限られている.
- これらの要因を理解することは 効果的な公衆衛生戦略に不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 死亡率と障害調整寿命 (DALYs) を含む乳がんの全般的な負担を評価する.
- 傾向,地域格差,医療従事者密度と乳がんの負担の関係について分析する.
- 機械学習モデルを使って 将来の乳がんの傾向を予測する
主な方法:
- 204カ国の2021年世界疾病負荷データを活用した.
- 雇用年齢期間コホート分析,分解分析,健康格差評価
- 医療従事者の密度と関連付けられ,予測のためにARIMAとProphetモデルを使用した.
主要な成果:
- 全世界の年齢標準化された乳がん死亡率は減少した (年間0.772%),しかし絶対的な死亡率は45,074 (1990) から81,506 (2021) に増加した.
- 発展途上地域では負担が増加し (例えば北アフリカ/中東: +2.026%) 高所得地域では負担が減少している (例えば西ヨーロッパ: -1.736%).
- 人口増加と高齢化が主な要因で,疫学的改善によって部分的に相殺されました. 予測によると2050年までに死亡者数は99,749人に達する見込みです
結論:
- 複合的なパラドックスが存在します 年齢を基準にした割合は低下していますが 乳がんの絶対的な負担は増加しており 格差が顕著です
- 医療従事者と病気の負担の関係が 変化しつつあり 予防へと移行しています
- 政策の介入は,開発途上地域の労働力への投資,年齢別予防,状況別ダイエットガイドラインに焦点を当てるべきです.
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