2050年までのイベリア半島における海運による排出量,大気質,死亡率,関連コストへの影響
Rafael A O Nunes1, Maria C M Alvim-Ferraz1, Fernando G Martins1
1LEPABE - Laboratory for Process Engineering, Environment, Biotechnology and Energy, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, Porto 4200-465, Portugal; ALiCE - Associate Laboratory in Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, Porto 4200-465, Portugal.
Journal of hazardous materials
|September 2, 2025
まとめ
海運による排出は,イベリア半島の空気質と健康に大きな影響を与えている. IMO 2020の硫黄の限界値と岸辺の電気などの厳しい規制は,空気の質を改善しますが,将来の成長にはさらなる行動が必要です.
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 公衆衛生
- 海上輸送に関する研究
背景:
- 世界的な輸送需要は 2050年までに3倍になると予測され 現在の環境規制を圧倒する可能性があります
- 既存の政策は,海運の増加とその環境と健康への影響を軽減するのに不十分かもしれません.
研究 の 目的:
- イベリア半島の空気質,公衆衛生,経済コストに対する船舶の排出量の影響を評価する.
- 過去 (2017年),現在 (2022年),そして将来 (2050年) のシナリオを分析し,IMO 2020年硫黄上限と岸辺電気 (SSE) のような規制を考慮する.
主な方法:
- 大気質と健康への影響評価のために高解像度の排出データを使用した.
- IMO 2020 硫黄の上限と主要イベリア港での仮設的なSSEの実施の影響をモデル化しました.
- 艦隊の効率化とTier IIIコンプライアンスを含む2050年の通常のビジネスシナリオの下での予測された将来の影響
主要な成果:
- IMO 2020の硫黄上限は,特にジブラルタル海峡の近くで,NO2,SO2,および粒子状物質 (PM2.5,PM10) を大幅に改善しました.
- 岸辺の電気 (SSE) は局所的な空気質の利点をもたらしたが,NOx定位によるオゾン (O3) のわずかな増加を引き起こした.
- 2017年から2022年の間,海運による排出量 (PM2.5) は,約1,061人の早期死亡と3,626年の生命喪失 (YLL) を引き起こし,経済コストは91億ユーロでした.
結論:
- 効率の向上とTier IIIの適合にもかかわらず,2050年に予測される影響は,増加した交通量と人口学的変化により,532億ユーロの早期死亡 (4,459) とYLL (68,081) の大幅な増加を示しています.
- 大西洋の排出量管理区域 (ECA) の導入などの規制措置は,将来の悪影響に対抗するために推奨されます.
- イベリア半島における海運の排出による健康と経済的負担の増大を管理するには,緊急の政策介入が必要である.
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