20歳から64歳までの脳と中枢神経系がんの世界的負担,1992年-2021年,2050年までの予測:人口ベースの研究
Hui Chang1, Xingyao Yan2, Qingyao Zhong3
1Baoji High-Tech Hospital, Baoji, Shaanxi, China.
BMJ open
|September 2, 2025
まとめ
1992年から2021年にかけて,全世界の脳および中枢神経系 (CNS) のがんの罹患率と発症率は20~64歳の成人の間で増加し,死亡率とDALYは減少した. 高い社会人口指数と低い社会人口指数との間に大きな格差が残っています.
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 世界保健
- 腫瘍学
背景:
- 脳と中枢神経系 (CNS) がんは,世界的な健康上の大きな課題です.
- 中枢神経系がんの流行傾向と差異を理解することは,公衆衛生の介入にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 1992年から2021年までの20~64歳の成人の中枢神経系がんの世界的,地域的,国家的な負担,傾向,不平等を推定する.
- 人口統計の影響を分析し 将来の癌症例数を予測する
主な方法:
- 2021年世界疾病負担と危険因子調査のデータを利用した人口ベースの研究.
- 年齢基準の流行,発生率,死亡率,障害調整寿命 (DALYs) の分析
- タイムトレンド分析,ベイジアン年齢周期コホートモデリング,予測モデリング,空間時間ガウスプロセス回帰を用いた.
主要な成果:
- 1992年から2021年にかけて,全世界の年齢標準化された中枢神経系がんの罹患率と発症率は増加した (AAPCはそれぞれ1. 04%と0. 23%).
- 年齢基準のDALYと死亡率は減少した (AAPCはそれぞれ - 0. 28%, - 0. 27%).
- 罹患率と発症率は若い成人 (20~24歳) で著しく増加し,DALYと死亡率は40~44歳で最も減少した. SDIが低い国ではより高い罹患率と罹患率が観察され,SDIが高い国とは異なり,DALYと死亡率は上昇し続けています.
結論:
- 中枢神経系がんの負担は,社会人口統計指標 (SDI) が異なる国々で,世界的に顕著に格差しています.
- これらの格差は 適応した臨床ガイドラインと 公平な世界的な保健資源の配分の必要性を強調しています
- 2050年までに世界的に発生する 中枢神経系がんの増加は,公衆衛生上の課題を強調しています.
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