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新薬の臨床開発へのインセンティブに対するインフレ削減法の薬剤価格交渉プログラムの影響
Robert J Nordyke1, Julie A Patterson2, James Motyka2
1Beta6 Consulting Group, USA, CA, Los Angeles.
まとめ
薬剤価格交渉プログラム (DPNP) は新しい薬剤のR&D投資収益を大幅に削減し,将来の薬剤開発に影響を与える可能性があります. これらの影響を軽減するための戦略は,インセンティブを完全に回復させませんでした.
科学分野:
- 健康 経済
- 医薬品政策
- 薬物開発
背景:
- 薬剤価格交渉プログラム (DPNP) は,処方薬のコストを削減することを目的としています.
- 製薬研究開発へのDPNPの影響を理解することは 将来の医薬品イノベーションにとって極めて重要です
研究 の 目的:
- 薬物研究開発 (R&D) への投資インセンティブに対するDPNPの効果を分析する.
- 小分子および生物学的薬の開発に対するDPNPの財政的影響をモデル化すること.
主な方法:
- DPNPに選択された5つの仮説的シナリオがモデル化されました.
- リスク調整された現在純価値 (NPV) と内部リターンレート (IRR) は,主要な開発マイルストーンで推定されました.
- シナリオには,疾患領域,発症戦略,およびDPNPに対する反応の変動が含まれていました.
主要な成果:
- DPNPは投資の見積もった収益を大幅に削減し,生物学的薬品と小分子のNPVは14%から95%まで減少した.
- 薬剤の2つのタイプの内部リターン率 (IRR) は3%から14%減少した.
- モデル化された対応は,DPNP以前の水準に投資インセンティブを完全に回復させませんでした.
結論:
- DPNPは,選択される可能性のある薬のR&D投資のインセンティブに悪影響を及ぼすと予測されています.
- 長期にわたる投資の削減は,大きな影響を与えるプログラムから資金を転向させる可能性があります.
- 薬の開発の将来に 潜在的に広範囲に及ぶ影響が予想されます
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