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BRICS+における食道がんの流行病学的傾向と予測:GBD 2021データベースに基づいて
Zhenglong Wang1,2, Hongwei Wei3, Weifeng Qi4
1School of Clinical Medicine, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|September 4, 2025
まとめ
食道がんの発生率はBRICS諸国によって大きく異なる.中国が最も多く,エジプトが最も少ない. 喫煙は主要なリスク因子であり,将来の傾向はこれらの国々の予測が異なっています.
科学分野:
- 腫瘍学
- 流行病学
- 公衆衛生
背景:
- 食道がんは 世界的に大きな健康問題です
- BRICS諸国では 人口や社会経済が多様で 病気の傾向を理解する上で 重要な役割を果たしています
- BRICS諸国における食道がんの傾向に関する 体系的な研究は限られている.
研究 の 目的:
- BRICS諸国における食道がんの負担と傾向を体系的に分析する.
- 食道がんの発生率と死亡率に寄与する主要な危険因子を特定する.
- BRICS地域内の健康格差を評価し,食道がんの将来の傾向を予測する.
主な方法:
- 年齢標準化発生率 (ASIR),年齢標準化早期死亡率 (ASPR),年齢標準化死亡率 (ASMR),年齢標準化障害調整寿命年率 (ASDR) のデータについて,グローバル・バード・オブ・ディジーズ (GBD) データベースを利用した.
- 推定年率変化 (EAPC) を用いて過去の傾向を評価し,バイエスの年齢-期間-コホート分析 (BAPC) モデルを用いて将来の予測を行った.
- 4つの主要なリスク要因を調査し,不平等の斜率指数 (SII) と濃度指数 (CI) を用いて健康格差を評価した.
主要な成果:
- 2021年には中国が食道がんの発生率が最も高く,エジプトはほとんどの指標で最低でした. 喫煙はほとんどの国で死亡率と DALY の主要な原因でした
- エチオピアでは野菜の摂取が少なく,インドではタバコを噛み,ロシアではアルコールの摂取が少なく
- BRICS諸国間の健康格差は 縮小傾向を示しています 将来の予測では,エジプト,イラン,南アフリカでは減少傾向があり,他の国々では変化傾向があり,中国とエチオピアでは上昇傾向にあります.
結論:
- この研究は,BRICS諸国における食道癌の負担と傾向の包括的な概要を提供します.
- これらの多次元的格差を理解することは,ターゲットに絞られた公衆衛生戦略を開発し,資源配分を最適化するために不可欠です.
- BRICS諸国における食道がんの効果的な予防と制御には,国別のリスク要因と傾向に基づいて, 適した介入が必要である.
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